Tag: decision making

Choice Architecture, Decision Making & the Miracle on the Hudson!

Where were you on January 15, 2009? 

Let’s journey back in time. The world was in economic turmoil. The financial crisis was raging. Just a few months earlier, Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks, spectacularly collapsed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the symbols of the homeownership “American Dream,” became insolvent. Tens of millions of homeowners were delinquent on their mortgages and faced potential foreclosure.

The world was at a low point not seen since the Great Depression.

Then IT happened. An event reminding people that real miracles DO happen. It was an event bringing hope to so many. The timing could not have been better. On January 15, 2009, Captain Chelsea “Sully” Sullenberger and his crew landed the disabled plane( bird hits on take off from LaGuardia airport had decapitated both engines), U.S. Airways Flight 1549, on the Hudson River. All passengers and crew were safe. Sully made the seemingly audacious decision to land a hobbled commercial airliner on a river. How could that ever make sense? Why did the plane not cartwheel? How did the passengers get rescued before the plane sank in the hypothermic water? While there were certainly miraculous elements to the Sully story, much of the flight forensics since this time has revealed the hero of the story: Excellent Decision-making.

 

A great decision starts with effective data curation. That is, the ability to quickly ingest and process information. We call it curation because the decision-maker must decide from an overwhelming amount of information, what information is most important, and weigh that information. In the decision sciences world, this is known as weighing criteria. In an organizational setting, groups of stakeholders must come together to provide criteria input from multiple perspectives. This often adds complexity to the decision.

 

One of the most famous examples of successful data curation is when Capt Sully landed the commercial airliner on the Hudson river. How much time did he have to decide? Less than 3 minutes. Yes. A decision that would impact hundreds of lives. In this absolutely awe inspiring story is an unsung hero– the Airbus A320’s cockpit display. A display that allows pilots to quickly understand a small number of critical airplane measures, like airspeed and flight angle. This enables the pilot to make quick and effective decisions. The cockpit display had been designed based on thousands of hours of measure and criteria testing. The Airbus designers created a display that intuitively delivers the most important information to the pilot decision-maker.

 

In the decision sciences world, the cockpit display design is known as “choice architecture.”

 

” Choice architecture refers to a scenario in which the environment in which someone must make a decision has been carefully designed to try and influence that decision “.

” Choice architecture describes the way in which decision making is influenced by how the choices are presented (in order to influence the outcome), and is a term used by Cass Sunstein and economist Richard Thaler in the 2008 book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness “. 
Getting the choice architecture right is a critical enabler of the best outcomes. In the case of this flight, it enabled Sully to quickly “load shed.” This is a pilot’s focusing action when only the most vital information is needed. Sully was able to quickly load shed unimportant details and focus upon the highest weighted information to choose the best alternative and to make the best decision. The cockpit display delivered to Sully exactly what he needed to know and when he needed to know it.
The outcome was “The Miracle on the Hudson.” A perfect landing on the unusually calm Hudson River that day.
Every time we make a choice, our minds go through an elaborate process most of us never even notice. We’re influenced by subtle aspects of the way the choice is presented that often make the difference between a good decision and a bad one. How do we overcome the common faults in our decision-making and enable better choices in any situation? The answer lies in more conscious and intentional decision design.
The designers of decisions need to consider all the elements involved in presenting a choice: how many options to offer, how to present those options, how to account for our natural cognitive shortcuts, and much more. These levers are unappreciated and we’re often unaware of just how much they influence our reasoning every day.
We are all choice architects, for ourselves and for others. Whether you’re helping students choose the right school, helping patients pick the best health insurance plan, or deciding how to invest for your own retirement..the choice is ours to make!
BTW, very recently my colleagues at ISD Global and me had a chance to attend a fireside chat hosted by Columbia University Professor Rita McGrath( and author of the fantastic book Seeing Around Corners) with Eric Roberts, another Columbia University Professor and author of a new book ” Elements of Choice ” where he dives deep about the concept of Choice Architecture and shares some insightful examples. A book worth reading if you see this( and Behavioral Economics) as a subject of interest.
ENDS

Quad(rant) biking through life!

Quad(rant) biking through life!
Quadrant: here is the mathematical definition in American English: one of  four rectangular areas that coordinate plane( = area with vertical and horizontal measures) is divided into. 

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We have often heard about terms like ​’ Be Limitless ‘ and ‘ Endless Possibilities ‘. These are bandied about in self help books, motivational speeches and even some business negotiations..” Considering the synergies that exist between our two organisations, there are endless possibilities that we can collaborate on “, is not very uncommon CEO speak. Well, (enough) said!

 

The reality on the ground is very different though. There is not much weightage accorded to the magic and energy of ‘ possibility ‘. And even less so in the case of what empowers possibility ie ‘ enrollment ‘. Often times we are all barking up the wrong tree. Consider that we look at this situation like if it were to be a quadrant with four concourses.

 

Concourse 1: High Possibility; High Enrollment: This is where most of our tribe is headed. Showing up, enrolling and putting in the hard yards, the emotional labour in the hope that at the end of it, they would realize what was envisaged as possible when they began. It’s indeed a very overcrowded space, fueled in large doses by what we call the ‘ herd mentality ‘ and the supposed ‘ wisdom of the crowds ‘. Red Ocean territory. Needless to say, the competition in this concourse is the highest.

 

Concourse 2: Low Possibility; High Enrollment: How to get into the Brazilian national football team ? Or any of the top NBA teams. Or getting admission into the IVY League Universities like Harvard, MIT etc. The odds are heavily stacked against the participants but the level of intensity and desire to get on board is at its highest which reflects in the insane number of enrollments for that special pie in the sky. In such cases, the existing eco system also keeps triggering and stimulating the hope and promise and thereby the corresponding spike in enrollment to get on board.

 

Concourse 3: Low Possibility; Low Enrollment: Yes there are such tribes..wanting to be lava surfers and ride the lava spitting out from the Mauna Loa​ (one of the world’s biggest volcanos) but there is neither a structure nor system in place to bring this to fruition. Little wonder such things see the lowest in terms of both possibility and enrollment.

 

Concourse 4: High Possibility; Low Enrollment: Strangely, this is the most under tapped area of the quadrant in spite of this being the area with the highest potential. It could be areas like being a social worker or a nurse or a music therapist. There is always a Minimum Viable Audience(MVA) and our enrollment can see that audience being connected to, engaged with, influenced and impacted.

 

We hold on to the old competencies and our hard-earned status roles far longer than we should. The only way to be creative is to do something new, and the path to something new requires leaving something else behind. Creativity is the generous act of solving an interesting problem on behalf of someone else. It’s a chance to take emotional and intellectual risks with generosity.

“Ignore sunk costs” is the critical lesson of useful decision making.

The thing you earned, that you depend on, that was hard to do–it’s a gift from your former self. Just because you have a computer science degree, a branding agency or the ability to do calligraphy in Cyrillic doesn’t mean that your future self is obligated to accept that gift.

What can we distill from this? Which is the Blue Ocean( or even better Green Swan) that is calling out to us? How much enrollment are we planning to put in to swim to where we want to be? Are we prepared to guts it out? Yes, the possibilities are out there. Enrollments are open. Apply now!

ENDS

 

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