Tag: Columbia University

Choice Architecture, Decision Making & the Miracle on the Hudson!

Where were you on January 15, 2009? 

Let’s journey back in time. The world was in economic turmoil. The financial crisis was raging. Just a few months earlier, Lehman Brothers, one of the largest investment banks, spectacularly collapsed. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the symbols of the homeownership “American Dream,” became insolvent. Tens of millions of homeowners were delinquent on their mortgages and faced potential foreclosure.

The world was at a low point not seen since the Great Depression.

Then IT happened. An event reminding people that real miracles DO happen. It was an event bringing hope to so many. The timing could not have been better. On January 15, 2009, Captain Chelsea “Sully” Sullenberger and his crew landed the disabled plane( bird hits on take off from LaGuardia airport had decapitated both engines), U.S. Airways Flight 1549, on the Hudson River. All passengers and crew were safe. Sully made the seemingly audacious decision to land a hobbled commercial airliner on a river. How could that ever make sense? Why did the plane not cartwheel? How did the passengers get rescued before the plane sank in the hypothermic water? While there were certainly miraculous elements to the Sully story, much of the flight forensics since this time has revealed the hero of the story: Excellent Decision-making.

 

A great decision starts with effective data curation. That is, the ability to quickly ingest and process information. We call it curation because the decision-maker must decide from an overwhelming amount of information, what information is most important, and weigh that information. In the decision sciences world, this is known as weighing criteria. In an organizational setting, groups of stakeholders must come together to provide criteria input from multiple perspectives. This often adds complexity to the decision.

 

One of the most famous examples of successful data curation is when Capt Sully landed the commercial airliner on the Hudson river. How much time did he have to decide? Less than 3 minutes. Yes. A decision that would impact hundreds of lives. In this absolutely awe inspiring story is an unsung hero– the Airbus A320’s cockpit display. A display that allows pilots to quickly understand a small number of critical airplane measures, like airspeed and flight angle. This enables the pilot to make quick and effective decisions. The cockpit display had been designed based on thousands of hours of measure and criteria testing. The Airbus designers created a display that intuitively delivers the most important information to the pilot decision-maker.

 

In the decision sciences world, the cockpit display design is known as “choice architecture.”

 

” Choice architecture refers to a scenario in which the environment in which someone must make a decision has been carefully designed to try and influence that decision “.

” Choice architecture describes the way in which decision making is influenced by how the choices are presented (in order to influence the outcome), and is a term used by Cass Sunstein and economist Richard Thaler in the 2008 book Nudge: Improving Decisions about Health, Wealth, and Happiness “. 
Getting the choice architecture right is a critical enabler of the best outcomes. In the case of this flight, it enabled Sully to quickly “load shed.” This is a pilot’s focusing action when only the most vital information is needed. Sully was able to quickly load shed unimportant details and focus upon the highest weighted information to choose the best alternative and to make the best decision. The cockpit display delivered to Sully exactly what he needed to know and when he needed to know it.
The outcome was “The Miracle on the Hudson.” A perfect landing on the unusually calm Hudson River that day.
Every time we make a choice, our minds go through an elaborate process most of us never even notice. We’re influenced by subtle aspects of the way the choice is presented that often make the difference between a good decision and a bad one. How do we overcome the common faults in our decision-making and enable better choices in any situation? The answer lies in more conscious and intentional decision design.
The designers of decisions need to consider all the elements involved in presenting a choice: how many options to offer, how to present those options, how to account for our natural cognitive shortcuts, and much more. These levers are unappreciated and we’re often unaware of just how much they influence our reasoning every day.
We are all choice architects, for ourselves and for others. Whether you’re helping students choose the right school, helping patients pick the best health insurance plan, or deciding how to invest for your own retirement..the choice is ours to make!
BTW, very recently my colleagues at ISD Global and me had a chance to attend a fireside chat hosted by Columbia University Professor Rita McGrath( and author of the fantastic book Seeing Around Corners) with Eric Roberts, another Columbia University Professor and author of a new book ” Elements of Choice ” where he dives deep about the concept of Choice Architecture and shares some insightful examples. A book worth reading if you see this( and Behavioral Economics) as a subject of interest.
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What was ‘Cooking ‘ at Apple the past decade?

What is Tim Cook’s Secret Sauce?

There will be case studies, books, documentaries about Apple under Tim Cook, but right now inspired by a sharp piece in FT that points out what Cook did with Apple. The piece by Patrick McGee quotes Dan Wang, professor of business at Columbia University.

“[Steve] Jobs had an amazing run, he says, but his focus on products meant revenues were inherently volatile, like that of a fashion company. ‘If you can predict next year’s consumer tastes, then you enjoy all the riches—it’s winner takes all,’ he says. ‘But if you get it wrong, you bear that cost. And what Tim Cook did well is to take Apple out of this cycle of having to search for a new hit product every time’…

“Two major products have emerged in Cook’s first decade, AirPods and the Apple Watch—big successes with market shares of 25% and 31%, respectively. But the services division has proved far more significant. Last year it delivered nearly $70bn in revenue—roughly double that of the Mac, iPad or wearables divisions—and margins were 70%.

“During his time at the helm, Apple’s annual revenues have ballooned from $108bn in the year he took over to $365bn in 2021. Net profits have grown 3.7 times, from $26bn to $95bn.



“But more significant is how Cook has built a services juggernaut to eke out every penny of the Apple ecosystem, garnering a steady stream of recurring revenues from App Store fees and nearly 800m customers paying for digital media that expanded during his tenure. That substantially reduced Apple’s dependence on the iPhone—and propelled the company’s share price to a level where its price-to-earnings ratio is now three times higher than what it was a decade ago.”

You can dig deeper in the FT article titled Apple at $3tn: the enigma of Tim Cook

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